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Zhitong Finance APP was informed that Guolian Securities released a research report saying that the domestic sales of household air conditioners accelerated significantly in October, and the new cold year entered the peak of delivery; After the channel goes to the warehouse, the sales boom rises, and the elasticity of replenishment can be expected. During the year, the leading price strategy was moderate, and the average price of the industry has been upward since September, and the leading high-end/offline advantages are outstanding. The short-term policies are favorable, and the pattern may not change qualitatively. In 2024, the policy will be strengthened and updated. The Q3 report of the leading white power company has excellent quality, strong business potential, continuous breakthrough in overseas OBM, and positive performance in export orders/production scheduling. It is recommended to actively lay out the report. Continue to recommend Midea (000333.SZ), Gree (000651.SZ), Haier (600690.SH) and Hisense Household Appliances (000921.SZ).

The main points of Guolian Securities are as follows:

The industry released the production and sales data of air conditioners in October online.

In October 2024, the output of household air conditioners was 14.06 million units, up +48.03% year-on-year, and the sales volume was 12.87 million units, up +37.91% year-on-year, of which 6.29 million units were sold domestically, 6.58 million units were exported, up +54.29% year-on-year, and the inventory at the end of the period was 16.04 million units. By brand, Gree’s shipments in that month were -1.89% year-on-year (domestic sales were -10.00% and exports were+23.08%); Midea +43.10% (domestic sales +40.29%, export+45.57%); Haier +50.00% (domestic sales +34.62%, export+90.00%); Hisense +51.56% (domestic sales +10.20%, export+85.33%); Changhong +189.29% (domestic sales +292.31%, export+100.00%); TCL+43.29% (domestic sales +2.00%, export +54.55%).

Policy flexibility has been fulfilled, and domestic sales have been greatly accelerated.

Driven by the old-for-new policy, the domestic sales of air conditioners accelerated significantly in October, and the monthly scale was the second highest in the same period.In terms of rhythm, the growth rate of domestic sales bottomed out in September 2023, and it was -4.5% in October, still at a low level; Excluding the base, the CAGR in October 2024 was +4.1%/+4.4% compared with that in the same period of 2021/2019, while it was mainly stable from June to September, with an obvious improvement from the previous month. In October, the installation card of air-conditioning faucet increased by +20%+ on the basis of double-digit growth in the same period. According to Ovi, the omni-channel retail volume of air-conditioning in October was +29% year-on-year. The rhythm of delivery terminals was similar, the channel went to the warehouse and the delivery was flexible.Looking forward to the follow-up, domestic sales of air conditioners M11-M12 in 2023 are +5% year-on-year, with a low base; The channel has been fully stocked. Since October, the terminal boom has continued to rise driven by the trade-in of the old, and the flexibility of the report end in the fourth quarter can be expected.

The leading enterprises have been divided, and the share of beauty has rebounded.

In October, Midea’s/Gree’s/Haier’s domestic air conditioner sales were +40%/-10%/+35% year-on-year, and Hisense/Changhong/Oaks were +10%/+292%/+100% year-on-year. Midea’s share rose year-on-year for the fourth consecutive month, and the domestic sales scale reached a new high in the same month; Haier continues to grow rapidly, while Gree still fluctuates. Aowei monitored the online retail volume of Xiaomi air conditioner in October +135% year-on-year, and the OEM continued to contribute to the increase. Changhong’s domestic sales performance was eye-catching. According to Aowei’s monitoring, the average online retail price of air conditioners in August/September/October was -5%/+3%/+6% respectively, and the average online price of brands such as Gree was -3% in January-October. The leading price strategy was moderate and the policy promoted the structural upgrading. This round of policy implementation relies heavily on offline, and the advantages of high-end share/offline channel of white electricity leading enterprises are obvious. Under the magnitude gap, the pattern may not change qualitatively.

The export growth trend is upward, and the scale continues to reach a new high.

The export shipment of household air conditioners in that month was +54.3% year-on-year, and it was +27% year-on-year in October 2023. The growth was of quality and the scale continued to reach a new high. Compared with the same period in 2021/2019, the CAGR in that month was +20%+, which was faster than that in August-September. Looking forward to the follow-up, the external sales volume of household air conditioners in 2023M11-M12 is +21% year-on-year. Excluding the base, the CAGR is +7% compared with the same period in 2021, and the actual base pressure is controllable. In the early stage, the typhoon affected the shipment lag+there may be a rush to ship under the expectation of tariff. In October, the export of household appliances by customs accelerated, while in October-November, the export schedule of air conditioners was still significantly increased. The leading export orders maintained a rapid growth, and the export of air conditioners was strong, and the quarterly prosperity continued with a high probability.In October, Midea/Gree air conditioner sales were +46%/+23% year-on-year, while Haier/Hisense /TCL were +90%/+85%/+55% year-on-year.

Risk warning:The cost of raw materials has risen; Household air conditioners are heavily accumulated; External demand is less than expected.

　　Recommendation: According to Nikkei Automotive Technology, several major Japanese automakers are currently equipping a new generation of CVT gearboxes to new models. This situation has appeared in the North American market, but different from the past, its strategy will focus on the global market and replace and eliminate the current AT gearbox on a large scale. In China, Honda and other manufacturers have also made it clear that the new models will be equipped with CVT. I recommend this article to everyone to understand the future layout of these enterprises in the main products.

　　Speaking of automatic transmission, DCT(Dual Clutch Transmission) is adopted in Europe, AT (automatic transmission) is adopted in the United States, and CVT (continuously variable transmission) is adopted in Japan. Up to now, it is common sense to adapt to local conditions everywhere. However, Nissan adopted a brand-new CVT for the North American model Altima, and Honda also decided to equip the North American model Accord with CVT, which broke this common sense. This paper discusses the latest CVT technology that is being developed to Japan, North America and even the whole world.　

　　Honda partially improved "Stepwagon" in April 2012, which increased the fuel efficiency of JC08 mode from 13.4km/L to 15.0 km/L.. In the overall fuel efficiency improvement of 12%, except the effect produced by idle stop mechanism, the remaining 5% is attributed to the improved and updated CVT (Figure 1).　

[Honda Stepwagon]

　　In fact, the CVT is not only equipped on Stepwagon, but a new "Accord" to be listed in North America in the autumn of 2012, and then a strategic component to be launched around the world. Previously, the North American Accord has been using a 5-speed automatic transmission (5AT), and the goal of the new CVT is to improve the fuel efficiency of the urban high-speed mixed mode by 10%.　

[CVT for medium-sized vehicles developed by Honda]

　　Support 2.0～2.4L engines. The fuel efficiency is 5% higher than the original CVT and 10% higher than the 5-speed automatic transmission. (b) "Stepwagon" equipped with the CVT for the first time.

　　Among the medium-sized cars in North America, the new "Atima" launched by Nissan in June adopts a new CVT, and now the car has the current top fuel efficiency — — The urban area is 27mpg(11.5/L) and the expressway is 38mpg(16.2km/L). Honda also chose CVT to compete with it.　

　　In the past, CVT had excellent fuel efficiency at low speed, but it was not good at high speed. Moreover, there are also opinions that the rapid acceleration performance is not good. However, Honda related people said, "From the example of Atima, we can know that CVT has sufficient commodity power in the United States."　

　　Developing three new CVT in one breath　

　　Of course, the new CVT has improved both acceleration performance and fuel efficiency. The range of speed ratio has been increased from 5.5 to 6.5. It is much larger than 5AT or so. By reducing the reduction ratio of Low Gear, the acceleration performance is improved, and at the same time, by increasing the reduction ratio of high gear, the engine speed during stable driving is reduced.　

　　In addition to CVT for medium-sized vehicles, Honda is constantly updating its products for light cars and small cars. It was originally launched as a light vehicle product, which has been applied to the "N BOX" launched in December 2011. In addition, it is planned to update CVT used for small cars such as Fit and replace AT with it (table below).

　　CVT for medium-sized vehicles supports 2.0～2.4L displacement engines, and its torque capacity is above 240 N m.. The CVT is different from the previous one, and it is envisaged to be applied globally. It also includes areas with long driving distance and severe use environment. Therefore, the new CVT has been redesigned with emphasis on reliability and durability (below).　

[The range of transmission ratio is expanded to 6.5]

　　At the same time, the fuel efficiency and durability are improved and promoted to the whole world.

　　The layout of the basic axis has not changed. First of all, after the input from the crankshaft, there is a torque converter, a planetary gear mechanism that can switch forward and backward, a primary pulley, a secondary pulley, a countershaft and a final reducer for transmission, which belongs to a more orthodox layout.　

　　What has changed is that the distance between the shafts of the pulley is expanded from the original 170mm to 180 mm. This is slightly longer than the new Jetco "CVT8" equipped by Nissan for Atima. When the distance between shafts is widened, the range of speed change ratio can be easily expanded and the transmission radius will be increased, so the efficiency will be improved. In addition, the diameter of the piston required for the pulley to clamp the belt can be enlarged.

[Nissan Altima]

　　Because the force pushing the pulley depends on the piston area, oil pressure and friction coefficient of engine oil, the oil pressure can be reduced by expanding the piston area by 20% and increasing the Froude number friction coefficient of CVT. Low oil pressure can reduce the load of oil pump.　

　　Moreover, in order to improve the efficiency of the oil pump, a chain-driven Vane Pump with two oil inlets and two oil outlets is also adopted. At low speed, the engine oil sprayed from one of the oil outlets can be returned to the input end, and the driving loss can be reduced by semi-spraying. Although this method has been used before, this time it has expanded the scope of semi-spraying.　

　　It also supports four-wheel drive models.　

　　In order to improve the reliability, a grinding process is also implemented to prevent the abrasion between the high-strength belt and the pulley. Because the car travels a longer distance overseas, the grinding process named Lapping is added to the original belt pulley processing while improving the durability of the belt. Therefore, the abrasion of the pulley surface can be reduced.　

[Stepwagon’s four-wheel drive also uses CVT gearbox]

　　Stepwagon’s four-wheel drive also uses CVT. In the past, even though CVT was used for two-wheel drive, AT was mostly used for four-wheel drive. The reason is that in order to prevent the locking of the driving wheel, it is necessary to control to adjust the transmission ratio instantly according to the reaction force applied to the gearbox, but it is difficult to ensure the reliability of the four-wheel drive vehicle with large reaction force.　

　　However, this time, the control performance of the engine was improved, and the burden of CVT was successfully reduced by adjusting the forward and backward switching clutch of the gearbox during locking. In the past, the forward and backward clutches and the lock-up clutch shared a hydraulic valve, and it was necessary to switch circuits. But this time, a linear solenoid was added and changed into independent control mechanisms.　

　　In the miniaturization and lightweight of the gearbox, the gasket divided into four pieces sandwiched between the housings was changed to metal, thus improving the rigidity when connecting the housings. Moreover, measures such as reducing the size of the valve body of the control system and reducing the thickness of the pulley have been added, so that although the torque capacity has been improved to some extent, the weight is still 95kg.

　　To be continued … …