Zhitong Finance APP was informed that Guolian Securities released a research report saying that the domestic sales of household air conditioners accelerated significantly in October, and the new cold year entered the peak of delivery; After the channel goes to the warehouse, the sales boom rises, and the elasticity of replenishment can be expected. During the year, the leading price strategy was moderate, and the average price of the industry has been upward since September, and the leading high-end/offline advantages are outstanding. The short-term policies are favorable, and the pattern may not change qualitatively. In 2024, the policy will be strengthened and updated. The Q3 report of the leading white power company has excellent quality, strong business potential, continuous breakthrough in overseas OBM, and positive performance in export orders/production scheduling. It is recommended to actively lay out the report. Continue to recommend Midea (000333.SZ), Gree (000651.SZ), Haier (600690.SH) and Hisense Household Appliances (000921.SZ).
The main points of Guolian Securities are as follows:
The industry released the production and sales data of air conditioners in October online.
In October 2024, the output of household air conditioners was 14.06 million units, up +48.03% year-on-year, and the sales volume was 12.87 million units, up +37.91% year-on-year, of which 6.29 million units were sold domestically, 6.58 million units were exported, up +54.29% year-on-year, and the inventory at the end of the period was 16.04 million units. By brand, Gree’s shipments in that month were -1.89% year-on-year (domestic sales were -10.00% and exports were+23.08%); Midea +43.10% (domestic sales +40.29%, export+45.57%); Haier +50.00% (domestic sales +34.62%, export+90.00%); Hisense +51.56% (domestic sales +10.20%, export+85.33%); Changhong +189.29% (domestic sales +292.31%, export+100.00%); TCL+43.29% (domestic sales +2.00%, export +54.55%).
Policy flexibility has been fulfilled, and domestic sales have been greatly accelerated.
Driven by the old-for-new policy, the domestic sales of air conditioners accelerated significantly in October, and the monthly scale was the second highest in the same period.In terms of rhythm, the growth rate of domestic sales bottomed out in September 2023, and it was -4.5% in October, still at a low level; Excluding the base, the CAGR in October 2024 was +4.1%/+4.4% compared with that in the same period of 2021/2019, while it was mainly stable from June to September, with an obvious improvement from the previous month. In October, the installation card of air-conditioning faucet increased by +20%+ on the basis of double-digit growth in the same period. According to Ovi, the omni-channel retail volume of air-conditioning in October was +29% year-on-year. The rhythm of delivery terminals was similar, the channel went to the warehouse and the delivery was flexible.Looking forward to the follow-up, domestic sales of air conditioners M11-M12 in 2023 are +5% year-on-year, with a low base; The channel has been fully stocked. Since October, the terminal boom has continued to rise driven by the trade-in of the old, and the flexibility of the report end in the fourth quarter can be expected.
The leading enterprises have been divided, and the share of beauty has rebounded.
In October, Midea’s/Gree’s/Haier’s domestic air conditioner sales were +40%/-10%/+35% year-on-year, and Hisense/Changhong/Oaks were +10%/+292%/+100% year-on-year. Midea’s share rose year-on-year for the fourth consecutive month, and the domestic sales scale reached a new high in the same month; Haier continues to grow rapidly, while Gree still fluctuates. Aowei monitored the online retail volume of Xiaomi air conditioner in October +135% year-on-year, and the OEM continued to contribute to the increase. Changhong’s domestic sales performance was eye-catching. According to Aowei’s monitoring, the average online retail price of air conditioners in August/September/October was -5%/+3%/+6% respectively, and the average online price of brands such as Gree was -3% in January-October. The leading price strategy was moderate and the policy promoted the structural upgrading. This round of policy implementation relies heavily on offline, and the advantages of high-end share/offline channel of white electricity leading enterprises are obvious. Under the magnitude gap, the pattern may not change qualitatively.
The export growth trend is upward, and the scale continues to reach a new high.
The export shipment of household air conditioners in that month was +54.3% year-on-year, and it was +27% year-on-year in October 2023. The growth was of quality and the scale continued to reach a new high. Compared with the same period in 2021/2019, the CAGR in that month was +20%+, which was faster than that in August-September. Looking forward to the follow-up, the external sales volume of household air conditioners in 2023M11-M12 is +21% year-on-year. Excluding the base, the CAGR is +7% compared with the same period in 2021, and the actual base pressure is controllable. In the early stage, the typhoon affected the shipment lag+there may be a rush to ship under the expectation of tariff. In October, the export of household appliances by customs accelerated, while in October-November, the export schedule of air conditioners was still significantly increased. The leading export orders maintained a rapid growth, and the export of air conditioners was strong, and the quarterly prosperity continued with a high probability.In October, Midea/Gree air conditioner sales were +46%/+23% year-on-year, while Haier/Hisense /TCL were +90%/+85%/+55% year-on-year.
Risk warning:The cost of raw materials has risen; Household air conditioners are heavily accumulated; External demand is less than expected.
关于作者