标签归档 西安品茶

Wen/Muyu

In China, social APP for strangers is a mystery. When talking about it in public, everyone scoffed, but privately, they quietly registered various platforms. According to the statistics of Ai Media Consulting, in recent years, the scale of social users of strangers in China has been growing, reaching nearly 650 million in 2020.

Everyone wants to get involved in the huge lonely market. The Internet has ups and downs, and only social interaction remains unchanged.

There are more and more social apps, and it is getting easier for everyone to know people, but it is getting harder and harder to understand people. Social platforms help people establish connections, but they deepen their loneliness.

The social platform for strangers has developed for so many years, but it has never been able to get out of the 1.0 era of "pan-socialization", why on earth? Is it "real business" or "false proposition"? Where should it go in the future?

Metacosmic Socialization: Old Wine in New Bottles

The pattern of social apps is changing, but the essence has not improved.

Not long ago, on February 11th, the social APP "Gel", which was launched only three weeks ago, successfully ranked first in the free list of the App store on that day, and dominated the list for three days, becoming the first social application ranking beyond WeChat since 2019.

The breakthrough of gel has triggered a series of discussions. Yes, it is also a "meta-universe". Users pinch their faces through AI to create their own avatars in the 3D world, and then socialize online. After a brief burst of popularity, the gel was quickly removed from the shelves due to problems such as doll wearing, clothing infringement and user privacy.

After the excitement, it quickly cooled down. On platforms such as Xiaohongshu, many users said that it was "boring", "uninstalled" and "useless". In fact, from the product point of view, the gel is not unique. In recent months, whether it is Rainbow Universe, which is known as "the first social stock in China Meta Universe", or Queuing Island in ByteDance, Xirang in Baidu, etc.The core gameplay is "pinching face and dressing up+virtual socialization".

Gel APP

To put it bluntly, the so-called meta-cosmic socialization is just to make the original product 3D, which is far from the real meta-cosmic experience like Ready Player One.

In fact, not only the meta-universe, but also the social APP for strangers in China has never really evolved since its birth. It has always been in the 1.0 era of "pan-socialization" and failed to enter the 2.0 era of "deep socialization". That is to say, social apps have changed from "strict control" to "voice control" or from LBS matching to interest matching.They just let you "know more about people", not let you "know more about people".

From Mo Mo to exploring, to Soul, people just changed different versions of the "gun-making artifact", but did not make real friends and establish effective relationships on it. Apart from helping people pass the time, social apps did not really solve the problem of "loneliness".

Undoubtedly, stranger socialization is a "real business", but Internet companies have made it a "false proposition". Why?

Paradox between "True Business" and "False Proposition"

Stranger social apps can’t achieve the balance between business interests and social values, perhaps for the following reasons:

First, there are natural and essential contradictions in product logic.

The social APP for strangers is efficiency-oriented. Mainstream products have the function of instant messaging, and they are all committed to how to help users connect more quickly. Momo’s rise is because people nearby can move from online to offline faster. Soul’s rise is because voice has higher communication efficiency than text.

However, socialization is naturally an inefficient thing. The establishment of relationships takes time to precipitate, and the accumulation of trust requires multi-faceted interaction.In the acceleration of connecting people, social products will naturally dilute the emotional concentration of the relationship and lower the spiritual depth of interaction.

Source: Network

In the past, online dating was a three-year and five-year long-distance running. Today, online dating is just a three-day and five-day game. From a psychological point of view, the period of maintaining freshness is four months, which can’t be reached at all on social apps, and even a large number of relationships such as "throwing lovers in the sun" have been developed.

The fast pace of online and the slow life of offline have formed a strong tear. The social context built by social apps in the virtual world cannot make people in the real world feel emotional and spiritual satisfaction, creating a strong sense of unreality.

Second, the deliberate edge ball induction in operation.

Although Momo officials never admitted that they were "dating software", it is undeniable that it did induce this behavior of users, and it gave China an outlet for sexual demand that had been suppressed for many years. No matter how glamorous words were used on the surface, it was hard to avoid playing such an edge ball in the operation process.

Even Soul, which claims to be a social soul, has introduced the function of the square, where only good-looking people can enjoy themselves. Most of the information streams recommended by the algorithm are "sexy" beauty selfies and ambiguous copywriting.

Soul APP

It is not difficult to understand from the perspective of business model.Social APP is a product with typical network effect and scale effect.It doesn’t have substantive products like e-commerce, nor does it provide high-quality content like the content community, or other tool-based apps provide a specific service. It relies on frequent interaction between users.The social interaction of strangers is essentially an unsustainable and highly uncertain demand. If we want to gather enough users, the greatest common denominator we can find is Maslow’s underlying demand, which is both urgent and tenacious.

Therefore, no matter how rich the interactive functions provided by social apps are, they will go to a wider market and eventually become an "appointment artifact" irrevocably. No matter what the initial intentions of Momo founder Tang Yan and Soul founder Zhang Lu are, for the sake of traffic, the product operation process will inevitably move towards action deformation, turning a blind eye to certain behaviors, and watching the platform fall into a smog step by step.

Finally, it is difficult to get rid of the fate of making wedding clothes for others.

Chinese Internet users are not sticky at all, especially in the social field. All founders of social apps for strangers will face a "soul torture": What if users add WeChat after they know each other? This is almost an unsolvable problem. In China, strangers socializing and acquaintances socializing are two distinct existence, and the high barrier of WeChat in the acquaintance relationship chain is unshakable.

Source: Network

As a result, the social APP for strangers can never form a closed-loop product. As a social platform, it cannot precipitate the user relationship chain.

The operation is facing an extremely embarrassing situation: the matching efficiency of users’ friends is low, and the loss of users is accelerated because of unsatisfied needs; The matching efficiency of users’ friends is high, and the loss of users due to transfer is accelerated.

How to solve this problem? Change the answer sheet.

Back to the original product starting point, all internet products are essentially in the same time battlefield, as long as users can spend time on the APP.So social platforms don’t need you to really make friends on them, as long as you are willing to spend time.Taking socialization as the table and entertainment as the reality, Momo’s resurrection depends on the live broadcast business, and Soul’s game functions are also increasing.

Social apps don’t really want to help you find friends, just want you to spend time and recharge. Entertainment-consuming socialization is a typical "ineffective socialization", which naturally does not give users a "sense of gain".

In addition to "about guns" and "games",

What else can strangers do when socializing?

The evolution of the mainstream stranger social APP product form represented by Momo is also the result of interaction with the needs of the people of the times. It is an outbreak of repression of emotional and sexual needs by Chinese people in the past years, but it is also staged.Social needs will inevitably move from the bottom of Maslow to the top. Today, everyone’s "loneliness" is no longer a lack of playmates, but has risen to spiritual resonance and recognition.

Zhang Xiaolong said that the essence of social interaction is to find the same kind.

In today’s atomized society, the mobility is increasing, the original social interpersonal relationship structure is disintegrated, people are forced to be divided into isolated islands, eager to be connected by the same kind, and it is this bridge that strangers need to play in social interaction.

In addition to producing hormones and dopamine, social apps need to provide more incremental value to connect with their peers. Stranger social tracks have also made different attempts to find the same kind for users.

Such as social activities.

Around 2015, there was a lively social activity. Taking the former head of someone as an example, with the concept of "everyone is the organizer", users can launch offline activities online, similar to Douban City. This model was first popular abroad. Founded in 2002, Meetup was one of the earliest active social networking sites. In 2017, it was acquired by WeWork for 200 million US dollars. In 2019, Meetup had more than 44 million users worldwide.

Meetup APP

In fact, the starting point of social activities is the real social activities under the tropic of cancer, with parties as the main product, but this model has met with acclimatization in China.

There is considerable uncertainty in offline multi-person activities, especially in China, which is generally not good at social, and it relies heavily on the planning and organizing ability of the organizers. Moreover, users in China are not used to paying for non-functional services, and a mature business model has not been explored for social activities. In March 2020, someet announced its closure, and many users expressed their nostalgia. They had a reputation but didn’t make money, which made the form of social activities never really develop.

Another typical representative is the interest in socializing.

The essence of interest socialization is to stratify users based on hobbies, so that they can find their own vertical circle. The forum exists on this basis, from Baidu Post Bar to Douban Group, which are all classic products.However, from the content community to the social APP, although based on the same product logic, there are essential differences.

Content communities rely on high-quality content to attract users, while interest social apps rely on tagging to gather users, which are not the same in viscosity. Social APP is centered on efficiency and immediacy, and its information flow naturally cannot produce and precipitate high-quality content like the content community, so it is difficult to form a real interest atmosphere. However, Chinese’s interest in cultural life is generally vague and popular, which also determines that social interest can only be sticky in a small circle.

Source: Ai Media Consulting

In July 2019, the product was acquired by Yingke Live, and its circle of interest still exists, but the homepage of the product still focuses on LBS-based face-to-face socialization, and the difference is that it depends on people nearby to recharge their members; In February, 2021, QQ closed the interest tribe, and in December, 2021, WeChat stopped the WeChat circle … The road of interest socialization, whether it is an emerging player or a giant, was finally defeated.

At least for now, stranger socializing in China is still a world of hormones and dopamine.This can’t be entirely blamed on the lack of hard work of social apps. Although everyone shouted "Good-looking skins are the same, interesting souls should choose one in case", they kept carefully taking selfies all the time, and their values kept rolling in, and their spirits remained calm.

However, the world of beauty is illusory after all, and the spiritual loneliness will only become more intense. Perhaps when the desire for deep socialization exceeds a critical value, the 2.0 era of strangers’ social interaction will slowly come.

　　Nuclear energy, also known as atomic energy, is the energy generated when nuclear fission or fusion occurs, which is widely used in industrial and military fields. Nuclear power is the abbreviation of nuclear power generation, which is the electricity generated by nuclear power generation. Using nuclear energy to generate electricity is conducive to optimizing the national or regional energy structure, improving energy security and economy, and playing an increasingly important role in economic and social development. According to the statistics of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), as of the end of January 2011, there were 442 nuclear power units in operation in the world, and the operating nuclear power plants were mainly distributed in North America, Asia and Europe, accounting for about 16% of the global power generation. There are 65 nuclear power units under construction, including 30 in China. At present, there are 13 nuclear power units in operation in China, ranking 11th in the world, with an installed capacity of 11.169 million kWh, accounting for 1.16% of China’s total installed power capacity, and the annual power generation is equivalent to 31.72 million tons of coal.

　　First, the working principle of nuclear power plants

　　A nuclear power station is a power station that uses the energy released by nuclear fission or fusion reaction of atoms to produce electric energy. At present, nuclear power plants in commercial operation all use nuclear fission reaction to generate electricity. Nuclear power plants are generally divided into two parts: nuclear islands (including reactor devices) that generate steam by atomic nuclear fission and conventional islands (including turbine-generator systems) that generate electricity by steam. The fuels used in nuclear power plants are generally the chemical elements uranium and plutonium. At present, the main types of nuclear power plants in operation and under construction are PWR, candu nuclear power plant, boiling water reactor, fast reactor and gas-cooled reactor.

　　Pressurized water reactor (PWR) nuclear power plant is a thermal neutron reactor which uses pressurized light water as coolant and moderator, and water does not boil in the reactor, and uses thermal neutrons to cause chain reaction. Daya Bay Nuclear Power Plant, Ling ‘ao Nuclear Power Plant, Qinshan No.1 Nuclear Power Plant, Qinshan No.2 Nuclear Power Plant and Tianwan Nuclear Power Plant in China all belong to this type of reactor. Candu nuclear power plant uses light water as coolant and heavy water as moderator, and the water does not boil in the reactor. It is also a thermal neutron reactor that uses thermal neutrons to cause chain reaction. Qinshan No.3 nuclear power station in China belongs to this type of reactor. Boiling water reactor nuclear power plant uses light water as coolant and moderator, but water boils in the reactor, which uses thermal neutrons to cause chain reaction. Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in Japan belongs to this type of reactor. The fast reactor nuclear power plant is a nuclear reactor in which the thermal energy released by the chain reaction caused by fast neutrons is converted into electrical energy. The nuclear power plant imported from Russia and to be built in Sanming, Fujian Province belongs to this type of reactor. Gas-cooled reactor nuclear power plant is a thermal neutron reactor with gas (carbon dioxide or helium) as coolant, which is caused by thermal neutrons. So far, three types of reactors have been developed, such as natural uranium graphite gas-cooled reactor, improved gas-cooled reactor and high temperature gas-cooled reactor. The Shidaowan nuclear power plant to be built in China belongs to high temperature gas-cooled reactor. The nuclear power plants in operation and under construction in China are mainly pressurized water reactor nuclear power plants.

　　PWR nuclear power plants generally have three loops: primary loop (reactor device), secondary loop (turbine generator system) and tertiary loop (circulating water system). Nuclear fuel burns in a special form in the reactor, generating heat to heat the coolant in the primary circuit. The heated coolant enters the steam generator under the push of the main pump, which heats the water in the secondary circuit and turns it into steam, and then is sent back to the core by the main pump for reheating. This continuous cycle is called a loop. Steam enters the steam turbine through the pipeline, which drives the turbine generator to do work and generate electricity, then enters the condenser, and is cooled into water and returned to the steam generator. This steam-water cycle process is called the secondary loop. The third loop uses seawater or fresh water, and its function is to cool the steam in the second loop in the condenser to change it back into condensed water.

　　In order to ensure the safety of nuclear power plant, many safety facilities are also considered in the design, including: automatic shutdown system, reactor overpressure protection system, emergency core boron injection system, emergency core cooling system, emergency water supply system, radioactive material containment system and its supporting emergency power supply and cooling ventilation system. On March 11th, 2011, the safety system of Fukushima nuclear power plant in Japan performed related functions, such as automatic shutdown and emergency diesel generator start-up. However, due to the magnitude 9 earthquake and tsunami, the related systems were out of power and lost the final heat sink due to flooding.

　　According to China’s nuclear safety regulations and the recommendations of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the principle of "defense in depth" is strictly implemented in the design, construction and operation of nuclear power plants in China, and multi-level overlapping protection is provided from equipment and measures to ensure that radioactive materials can be effectively contained without leakage. "Defense in Depth" includes the following five lines of defense: careful design and construction to ensure excellent equipment and safety training of nuclear power plants; Strengthen operation management and supervision, and eliminate faults in time; Design and provide multi-level safety system and protection system to prevent equipment failure and human error from causing accidents; Activate the safety system of nuclear power plants, strengthen the management of power plants in accidents, and prevent accidents from expanding; Start the emergency response plan inside and outside the factory, and strive to reduce the impact of the accident on the surrounding residents.

　　Two major nuclear accidents and experience feedback

? 　Due to the complexity of the nuclear power plant system and the limitation of human understanding, there were two major nuclear accidents before the Fukushima nuclear accident. The accident at Three Mile Island in the United States on March 28th, 1979 had little impact on the environment. The Chernobyl accident on April 26, 1986 really made people realize the potential threat of nuclear power plants. In the accident, 237 occupational workers were exposed to clinically effective overdose radiation, of which 134 showed symptoms of acute radiation and 28 died within 3 months. From 1986 to 1987, the average radiation dose of 200,000 people who participated in accident treatment was about 100 millisieverts, of which about 10% people received 250 millisieverts and a few people received more than 500 millisieverts. After the accident, about 10% of the 116,000 residents evacuated from the restricted area with a radius of 30 kilometers received more than 50 millisieverts, and less than 5% received more than 100 millisieverts. Short-term exposure of humans to radiation doses below 100 millisieverts is basically harmless. The investigation shows that the fundamental causes of Chernobyl accident are design defects (positive power coefficient, no containment, etc.) and human errors (serious violation of regulations). The Chernobyl nuclear accident is by far the most serious one (the Fukushima nuclear accident cannot be accurately evaluated at present due to the lack of specific data).

　　Through the summary and reflection of nuclear accidents, many new safety measures and safety concepts have been developed. After the Chernobyl accident, international nuclear safety group of IAEA put forward the concept of nuclear safety culture, and published the report "Safety Culture" in 1991, which was widely accepted worldwide. At the same time, nuclear operators in the world realize that any nuclear accident will have an impact on other nuclear power plants. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen exchanges and cooperation among nuclear operating units, promote effective experience feedback, and establish a nuclear safety culture to prevent nuclear accidents. In May 1989, 144 nuclear operators around the world signed the Charter of the World Association of Nuclear Operators (WANO) in Moscow, aiming at improving the safety and reliability of nuclear power plants around the world.

　　Third, the new generation of nuclear power technology and its prospect

　　After nearly 60 years of development, nuclear power has formed a complete set of systematic and complete theoretical system and accumulated a lot of operating experience. The newly designed nuclear power units are divided into two directions: one is to increase the configuration of special safety facilities to enhance the safety of the units, represented by EPR nuclear power units in France and VVER nuclear power units in Russia; Second, a large number of passive special safety facilities are used to enhance the safety of the unit, represented by the AP1000 nuclear power unit in the United States. French EPR adopts the design concept of "plus", that is, to increase redundancy to improve safety, and the safety system is increased from two series to four series, which also increases the complexity of the safety system and takes corresponding measures to prevent and alleviate serious accidents. The American AP1000 safety system adopts the "passive" design concept, which better achieves the "simplified" design principle. The safety system uses the natural characteristics of materials (gravity, natural circulation, energy of compressed gas, etc.), and does not need pumps, AC power supplies and corresponding support systems such as ventilation and cooling water, which greatly simplifies the safety system and reduces human errors. The design concept of VVER nuclear power unit in Russia is similar to that of EPR in France.

　　The accident of Fukushima nuclear power plant in Japan has once again aroused people’s concern about the safety risks of nuclear power, which will promote people’s continuous exploration of new technologies, with the aim of making nuclear energy safer, cleaner and more efficient. (Author: Party Secretary and Deputy Director of the Nuclear and Radiation Safety Center of the Ministry of Environmental Protection)

　　At present, what are the research results of highly pathogenic avian influenza?

　　Since the mid-1990s, China has done a lot of work on the epidemiology, diagnosis, immune control and basic research of avian influenza, and obtained many research results. The diagnosis technology of avian influenza has been established: ① agar diffusion (AGP) diagnosis technology. ② subtype typing technology of avian influenza virus. ③ Molecular diagnosis and detection technology of avian influenza virus. Avian influenza vaccine development: An inactivated vaccine of H5 subtype avian influenza has been developed, which can be used for emergency immunization of H5 subtype highly pathogenic avian influenza. The live carrier vaccine of H5N1 subtype avian influenza recombinant fowlpox virus has also entered the stage of environmental release and safety evaluation.

　　How long will it take to confirm the pathogen? Do what experiment?

　　Highly pathogenic avian influenza must be diagnosed by virus isolation and identification. It usually takes at least 3~5 days for virus isolation and subtype identification. The pathogenicity of the virus must be finally determined by artificial intravenous inoculation of non-specific pathogen chickens (SPF chickens).

　　What is the standard for diagnosing highly pathogenic avian influenza stipulated in the technical specification for prevention and control of highly pathogenic avian influenza issued by the Ministry of Agriculture? According to the Notice of the Ministry of Agriculture on Printing and Distributing Seven Technical Specifications for Prevention and Control of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (Nongbanmu [2002] No.74), highly pathogenic avian influenza can be confirmed to have occurred under the following circumstances: ① There are typical clinical symptoms and pathological changes, acute onset and high mortality, and Newcastle disease and toxic diseases can be excluded, and serological tests are positive. ② Avian influenza serotypes H5 and H7 were seropositive in the poultry that were not immunized. ③ Avian influenza virus strains of H5 and H7 subtypes or other subtypes were isolated from poultry flocks.

　　According to the virulence, avian influenza is divided into several categories, how to identify it?

　　Influenza viruses are divided into highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HP avian influenza virus), low pathogenic avian influenza virus (LP avian influenza virus) and non-pathogenic avian influenza virus (NP avian influenza virus) according to their pathogenicity. In view of the importance of HP avian influenza virus, the relevant identification standards and procedures are introduced as follows:

　　The World Organization for Animal Health classifies highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses as follows:

　　(1) Eight susceptible chickens aged 4-8 weeks were inoculated with 02 ml of 1∶10 diluted allantoic fluid infected with influenza virus by intravenous injection, which could cause 6-7 or 8 chickens to die within 10 days after inoculation. These influenza viruses should be highly pathogenic.

　　(2) The isolate can kill 1~5 chickens, but the virus is not H5 or H7 subtype, so the following experiments should be carried out: Inoculate the virus on the cell culture, and observe whether it causes cell pathological changes or forms plaque when trypsin is lacking. If the virus cannot grow on cells, the isolate should be considered as a non-highly pathogenic avian influenza virus.

　　(3) When all H5 and H7 strains with low pathogenicity and other viruses can grow on cells lacking trypsin, the amino acid sequence of peptide chain related to hemagglutinin should be analyzed. If the analysis results are similar to other highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses, this tested isolate should be considered as highly pathogenic avian influenza virus.

　　How to collect and separate the samples of the pathogen after the occurrence of avian influenza?

　　The diagnosis depends largely on the quality of the sample, the storage and transportation process of the sample before laboratory treatment. Samples of respiratory viruses used for cell culture, chicken embryo inoculation and direct detection of virus antigens or nucleic acids should be collected 3 days after the onset of flu symptoms. Avian influenza is mainly infected by respiratory tract and digestive tract. Therefore, the samples collected from the upper respiratory tract of mammals and birds are suitable for the identification and diagnosis of influenza virus. There are three types of upper respiratory tract swabs: nasal cotton swabs, throat cotton swabs and tracheal cotton swabs. Slaughtered or dead mammals should collect samples in the lower respiratory tract, which are divided into three types: tracheal cotton swab, bronchial cotton swab and lung tissue. Avian samples should be collected in the respiratory tract and most of the digestive tract. The virus samples collected include cloacal cotton swabs and feces, among which cloacal cotton swabs can be collected from live chickens or slaughtered chickens. Collecting feces samples from chicken coops or the environment is a common sampling method, but it has the disadvantage of not being able to determine the exact source of samples. If it is suspected that dead birds contain highly pathogenic avian influenza virus, representative internal organs such as brain, spleen, heart and lung should also be collected.

　　If you want to detect the virus directly by immunofluorescence staining of infected cells, then the collected disease materials should be placed in an ice bath and the samples should be processed within 1~2 hours. Samples used for virus isolation should be frozen in the refrigerator immediately after sampling, and inoculated into sensitive cells or chicken embryos as early as possible. If the sample cannot be processed within 48~72 hours, it should be frozen at -70℃ or below. If the test tube containing the sample is not sealed, or the plastic bag containing the sample is not tightly sealed, the sample cannot be transported or stored in dry ice. Because once the dry ice comes into contact with the diseased sample, it can quickly inactivate the influenza virus that may exist in it.

　　The collected samples should be placed in a suitable transport buffer to ensure the isolation of the virus. At present, there are some transport buffers suitable for different virus samples, such as Hanks balanced salt solution, cell culture medium, phosphate buffer, tryptone-phosphate broth, calf beef soup and sucrose phosphate buffer, etc. In these transport buffers, 0.5% ~ 1% protein, such as bovine serum albumin and gelatin, should be added, and antibiotics should be added to prevent the growth of bacteria.

　　How to collect and transport pathological samples?

　　Pathological samples should generally be taken from dead or live birds in the early stage of infection or acute stage of onset. Dead birds collected tissue samples such as trachea, lung, liver, kidney, spleen and cloaca. Live birds should be smeared with sterilized cotton swabs of different sizes on throat, trachea or cloaca. Cotton swabs with secretions should be put into broth containing 1 000 international units of penicillin, 2 000 micrograms of streptomycin and pH 72 ~ 76 per ml. When there is no broth, Hanks solution or 25%~50% glycerol saline can be used. The concentration of antibiotics used in feces and cloaca cotton swabs should be increased.

　　Transportation and storage of samples: if the collected samples are inspected within 48 hours, they can be stored at 4℃; Otherwise, it should be stored at low temperature (-70℃ is the best).

　　What are the diagnostic methods and procedures for highly pathogenic avian influenza?

　　(1) Epidemiology Avian influenza virus has a wide range of hosts, such as chickens, turkeys, ducks, geese, quails and pheasants, and wild birds, waterfowl and seabirds. Among them, chickens and turkeys are the most harmful after being infected with avian influenza virus, and more viruses are isolated from ducks than other poultry. Birds of all ages can be infected.

　　Avian influenza virus is mainly transmitted through direct contact and indirect contact between infected birds (including equipment in contact with infected birds). In addition, poisonous birds or waterfowl often become the source of infection, causing a large number of diseases and deaths of poultry.

　　(2) The incubation period of clinical symptoms of avian influenza varies from several hours to three days. The incubation period depends on the virulence and dose of the infected virus, the route of infection, the species of infected birds and the state of the birds. Acute infection of avian influenza has no specific clinical symptoms. In a short time, loss of appetite, sudden rise of body temperature, respiratory symptoms, diarrhea and neurological symptoms can be seen. With a large number of deaths.

　　(3) Pathological changes The pathological changes of avian influenza vary with the virulence of the infected strain, the duration of the disease and the species of birds. The main manifestations are head swelling, fleshy beard, crown bleeding, subcutaneous bleeding and edema of legs and toes, glandular stomach nipple bleeding and salpingitis.

　　(4) Etiological diagnosis-virus isolation needs to be completed by the national laboratory.

　　(5) Serodiagnosis At present, the methods used for avian influenza detection include avian influenza virus isolation, agar diffusion (AGP) test, hemagglutination inhibition (HI) test, neuraminidase inhibition (NI) test, enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), virus neutralization test (SN), reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), immunofluorescence technology (IF) and nucleic acid probe technology.

　　Avian influenza virus hemagglutinin typing antigen and standard typing serum were provided by Harbin Veterinary Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, and operated according to the instructions.

　　In a word, the diagnosis of avian influenza, the isolation and identification of laboratory viruses and the pathogenicity test all take a long time and cost a lot. Only a few laboratories can carry out this inspection, and they can’t make a diagnosis within a short time (48 hours) after receiving the inspection samples, and the diagnosis lags behind the requirements of taking measures on the spot. The faster and earlier the diagnosis of avian influenza is made, the smaller the loss will be. When bird flu is suspected, it is very important to report the epidemic situation in time so as to obtain timely diagnosis from relevant experts.

　　How to make a differential diagnosis of avian influenza?

　　Because the epidemic characteristics, symptoms and pathological changes caused by avian influenza infection are similar to some infectious diseases of poultry, it is necessary to make differential diagnosis in time, such as Newcastle disease, infectious bronchitis, infectious laryngotracheitis, infectious rhinitis, mycoplasma disease, chlamydia disease, egg drop syndrome, etc. Especially the mixed infection or secondary infection of some diseases makes the condition more complicated, which makes diagnosis difficult or easy to be misdiagnosed. Therefore, the differential diagnosis is very important.

　　The first is the differential diagnosis with Newcastle disease. The epidemic characteristics, symptoms and pathological changes of avian influenza are very similar to those of Newcastle disease in chickens. Generally speaking, the incubation period and course of highly pathogenic avian influenza are shorter than those of Newcastle disease in China at present. The symptoms such as dyspnea, hydrops in crop and mouth, cooing when dyspnea, typical neurological symptoms and conventional typical pathological changes are all more obvious and characteristic than avian influenza. In addition, the emergency immune effect of Newcastle disease on the spot is all related to avian influenza. However, some of them are not obviously different. The accurate differential diagnosis of the two diseases can only rely on laboratory diagnosis. The simplest and most practical methods are virus isolation and hemagglutination inhibition test (HI). Newcastle disease antiserum can not inhibit the hemagglutination of avian influenza virus, and vice versa.

　　According to the comprehensive analysis of epidemic characteristics, symptoms, pathological autopsy and laboratory examination (etiology, serology), avian influenza can be distinguished from other epidemics. Similarly, secondary or complicated bacterial or viral diseases can be determined by pathogen isolation and some detection methods.

　　Excerpted from "Questions and Answers on Prevention and Control of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza" by China Agricultural Publishing House.

Previously on Observer Network Synthesis: The FBI seems to be Trump’s "savior" who has been lagging behind in the election. It not only restarted the "mail door" investigation at a critical moment, but also denied that Hillary accused Trump of improper contact with Russia. There is evidence to support it.

Another important character who influenced the election, Assange, has even "evolved" to predict Hillary’s emotions. He described Hillary as "even losing her mind in pursuit of ambition", and Hillary was "sure enough" angered by the protester’s sentence "Clinton is a rapist".

Previously, she has been trying to show a rational and calm temperament, and often publicly accused Trump that "people who are easily angered on social media are not suitable for mastering nuclear weapons."

After this wave, according to the latest polls, the election situation has reached a "rebalancing".

On November 1, Hillary rarely got angry at the campaign rally.

Hillary rarely gets angry.

On November 2nd, the US Chinese website quoted New York Post as saying that on Tuesday (2nd) night, Hillary Clinton lost her temper in front of a protester in a rare campaign rally.

At a rally in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, a protester shouted, "Bill Clinton is a rapist!"When Hillary heard it, she pointed her finger at the protester to fight back.

She said: "You know, I am sick and tired of these negative, dark, divisive, dangerous and angry Trump supporters (I am sick and tired of the negative, dark, divisive,
dangerous vision and behavior from people who support Donald Trump)”。

In fact, this is not the first time that protesters have expressed their anger at Hillary’s campaign rally in this way, but Hillary’s reaction this time is indeed abnormal.

"We will not retreat, we will move forward to a better future." The supporters in the audience shouted Hillary’s name to cheer for it. Protesters who shouted "Clinton" was a rapist were expelled from the venue.

Earlier, Hillary Clinton questioned Trump in public more than once that he was easily angered. In the third TV debate, she also criticized Trump "as an easily angered person. How can such a person be the commander-in-chief of the three armed forces of the United States? Will the world be safe by giving the US nuclear weapon password to someone who is easily angered by a Twitter? " She also said that a mature diplomat will not talk lightly about war. War is never the first option, and reason must always overcome sensibility.

At the Democratic Party Congress held in Philadelphia in July, Hillary Clinton also made similar remarks: "Imagine him in the Oval Office (the President’s Office of the White House). For a real crisis, a person who can be defeated by Twitter is not someone we can entrust with nuclear weapons."

Assange: Hillary ClintonMy heart is full of ambition, and it is morbid.

Russian satellite news network reported on November 3rd that julian assange, editor-in-chief of Wikileaks website, said in an interview with Russian TV Today that she felt very sorry for Hillary Clinton, the presidential candidate of the Democratic Party of the United States, who was "full of ambition".

Data map: Assange

Assange said, "I actually feel sorry for Hillary, because her heart is full of ambition, and she has reached a morbid state, even losing her mind in pursuit of ambition."

Lawyer Assange said earlier that if Hillary wins the election, the security threat to the editor-in-chief will increase significantly.

Assange also pointed out that Hillary’s campaign team’s statement about Russia’s intervention in the US election is false. He also refuted Russia’s assertion that Wikileaks broke the news.

Assange said: "The Hillary team successfully set off a wave of new McCarthyism. Hillary Clinton has made false statements more than once before, saying that 17 intelligence agencies in the United States have concluded that Russia is the source of Wikileaks, which is incorrect. "

Assange told the press conference of the 10th anniversary of Wikileaks in early October this year that the website would expose all documents related to the US presidential election before November 8th.

Poll: Trump’s odds are increasing　"invisible voters" may assist

According to the China Journal website reported on November 3rd, Trump’s odds are increasing. A recent follow-up poll shows that Trump’s support rate is 5.4 percentage points higher than that of Democratic rival Hillary Clinton. Analysts also pointed out that a group of "invisible voters" who are unwilling to admit supporting Trump verbally but secretly vote for Trump will send the controversial billionaire to the White House.

On November 2, the latest follow-up poll released by Los Angeles Times showed that Trump’s support rate was 47.8%, which was 4 percentage points higher than last week, while Hillary’s support rate dropped by 3 percentage points to 42.4% now. This is the first time since May this year that a poll showed that Trump was ahead of Hillary.

Recent polls show that Trump’s support rate has been equal to Hillary.

Before the polling day, the donis College of the University of Southern California and the Los Angeles Times conducted a follow-up poll. They asked about 3,000 Americans about their voting intentions every day in order to grasp the changing trend of the election.

The New Zealand Herald also published an article on November 3, saying that based on the early voting data and a political theory called "Bradley effect", many voters had made up their minds to support Trump, but they lied in the polls because they were afraid of being labeled politically incorrect, but they voted for Trump when they officially voted. This group of "invisible" voters is likely to become Trump’s magic weapon.

Zinia Victor, an American expert at Chatham House, a British think tank, believes that Trump has undoubtedly inspired many voters who have never participated in the general election before. "We have seen, this is a fact. Look at those who participated in the Trump campaign. They are not typical Republican voters. " Victor said, "Hillary’s supporters are not so enthusiastic … This is a problem, because during Obama’s campaign, he was able to attract a large number of voters who had never voted before to stand up for him, but according to the current early voting data, these people did not stand up for Hillary."

A similar situation occurred in the Brexit referendum. At that time, about 3 million voters who had never voted before stood up, and their appearance reversed the voting results predicted by the polls in one fell swoop, and Brexit unexpectedly won. Newt gingrich, former speaker of the US House of Representatives, said: "I believe that just like the Brexit referendum, Trump’s final vote rate is likely to be 3 to 4 percentage points higher than expected by the polls."

The practice of Paul Ryan, the current speaker of the House of Representatives of the United States, confirms that the "Bradley effect" really exists. The Republican who has refused to publicly support Trump admitted on November 1 that he had voted for Trump in advance.

The American political news website "Politico" quoted a Republican in Virginia as saying: "I know many Republicans who are unwilling to admit that they will vote for Trump, and I am unwilling to admit it myself. If Hillary’s approval rating is 5 percentage points higher than Bitram’s, this will not cause any problems. Otherwise, the results on the polling day may surprise everyone. "

This article is an exclusive manuscript of Observer. The content of the article is purely the author’s personal opinion, and does not represent the platform’s view. It shall not be reproduced without authorization, otherwise legal responsibility will be investigated. Pay attention to the observer network WeChat guanchacn and read interesting articles every day.