On Monday (April 1st) EST, the ISM manufacturing index in March released by the United States unexpectedly rose to 50.3, and entered the expansion range for the first time since September 2022, which suppressed the Fed’s expectation of interest rate cut. The probability of interest rate cut in June was less than 50%, and the yield of US bonds rose, which suppressed the market performance. US stocks once turned down across the board and eventually closed mixed.
At the close, the S&P 500 index fell 0.20% to 5243.77 points; The Dow Jones index fell 0.60% to 39,566.85 points; The Nasdaq index rose 0.11% to 16,396.83.
As for the yield of US bonds, stimulated by the unexpected expansion of ISM manufacturing industry, the yield of US bonds soared, and the yield of 10-year US bonds rushed above 4.3% to close at 4.33%. The yield of 2-year US bonds, which is most sensitive to the Fed’s policy interest rate, closed at 4.72%.
At present, the market still has illusions about the first decline in the first half of the year, and the unexpected rise in the ISM manufacturing index has hit investor sentiment. Bank of America analysts said that the ISM report confirmed last week’s statement that the resilience of the US economy kept the Fed patient. For the bond market, this means that interest rates will remain at a high level for a longer period of time.
This is consistent with Powell’s reaffirmation last Friday that he is not in a hurry to cut interest rates. Oppenheimer analysts pointed out that the Fed has repeatedly postponed the expectation of interest rate cuts, which disappointed investors.
In terms of important news, the recent performance of gold can be described as soaring. Although the expectation of interest rate cuts was suppressed overnight, the price of gold still hit a record high. Joseph Cavatoni, market strategist of the World Gold Council, said: "I think this is a very exciting moment for gold. I believe that what really drives this trend is that many market speculators are indeed full of confidence and comfort in the Fed’s interest rate cut. "
On the AI side, OpenAI announced that it will allow users to use ChatGPT directly without registering the service, which will make it easier for people to experience the potential of artificial intelligence. OpenAI allows over 100 million users in 185 countries and regions to use ChatGPT to learn new things, find creative inspiration and get answers to questions.
Recently, the rim has been extremely hot, which has once again set off a wave of price cuts. This time, the "initiator" is not Tesla, but Xiaomi. Weilai, Chery, Wenjie and Tucki launched different preferential policies on the same day. Interestingly, Jia Yueting, the head of FF, a new car-making force far across the ocean, has a good opinion on Xiaomi.
On April 1st, Jia Yueting issued a document saying: The first release of Xiaomi Automobile was very successful, which reflected the maturity of China’s new energy automobile industry chain in recent years and the great advantage of China’s manufacturing cost performance. The execution and marketing ability of Xiaomi’s car-making is worthy of praise, but the cottage culture, shortcut mode and follower thinking are regarded as the standard by many people, which is worrying.
Since July 4, 2017, Jia Yueting boarded a flight to the United States and left a sentence "Return to China next week". He has been stranded in the United States for nearly seven years.
[Hot stocks]
Among the popular US stocks, Google closed up nearly 3%, reaching a record high, Microsoft rose 0.92%, NVIDIA rose 0.01%, Amazon rose 0.33%, Tesla fell 0.32%, Apple fell 0.85%, Meta rose 1.19%, AMD rose 1.58%, Arm Holdings rose 1.54%, and Nye soared 1.15%.
[global index]
European stocks closed
[China Stock Market]
Nasdaq China Jinlong Index rose 1.91%. In terms of popular Chinese stocks, Pinduoduo rose 2.50%, TSMC rose 3.95%, Weilai rose 3.33%, Xpeng Motors rose 1.11%, Alibaba rose 1.40%, Baidu rose 3.00% and Netease fell 4.60%.
[foreign exchange commodities]
The US dollar index once rushed above the 105 mark in intraday trading, hitting a new high in nearly four months.
New york gold closed 0.61% higher at $2,250.2 an ounce.
Due to the prospect of tightening the supply of crude oil in Mexico and the risk of expanding the Middle East conflict caused by Israel’s attack on Syria, oil prices have hit a new high in the near future. WTI crude oil continued to hit a new high since October last year, and finally closed up 1.09% to US$ 84.08/barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 0.93% to 87.8 yuan/barrel.
[Highlights]
In March, the unexpected expansion of ISM manufacturing industry in the United States ended, and prices continued to shrink for 16 months, with new orders and production rising.
The US ISM manufacturing index rose to 50.3 in March, entering the expansion range for the first time since September 2022. Sub-indices such as prices, new orders and production have risen in succession. After the data was released, the market expected that the possibility of the Fed’s interest rate cut in June was less than 50%. The US debt plummeted and the US stock index fell.
Xiaomi shock wave: a new wave of price cuts by car companies staged
Wei Lai, Chery, Wen Jie and Tucki made moves on the same day. In 2024, Tucki G9 enjoys the subsidy for smart driving, and the current car is reduced to a maximum of 20,000 yuan within a limited time. Weilai launched a subsidy of up to 1 billion yuan for oil vehicle replacement, which is applicable to Weilai 2024 models. The equity of the new M7 model was adjusted, with a straight drop of 20,000 yuan. From April 1st, Chery’s policy of 10 billion yuan subsidy replacement season was renewed, and the purchase tax for designated vehicles in a limited time was free, and there were even discounts such as old cars up to 30,000 yuan and large car purchase coupons of 49,999 yuan.
Jia Yueting comments on Xiaomi
On April 1st, Jia Yueting issued a document saying: The first release of Xiaomi Automobile was very successful, which reflected the maturity of China’s new energy automobile industry chain in recent years and the great advantage of China’s manufacturing cost performance. The execution and marketing ability of Xiaomi’s car-making is worthy of praise, but the cottage culture, shortcut mode and follower thinking are regarded as the standard by many people, which is worrying.
He believes that values determine the ceiling, and benchmarking, plagiarism and shallow innovation cannot bring about fundamental technological changes and basic technological transcendence.
Research Institute: Tesla or the loss of potential car buyers in the United States under the influence of Musk’s remarks
According to a survey by market intelligence company Caliber, the number of potential buyers of Tesla Motors in the United States is decreasing, and the survey results partly blame the controversial image of Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Tesla will announce its production and delivery in the first quarter of this year as soon as this Tuesday (April 2). At present, the delivery volume is still on the rising track, but there may be obvious signs of slowing down. There are also pessimistic industry analysts who predict that the delivery volume may decline year-on-year.
Amazon is training the big model "Olympus" to surpass Claude in the middle of the year.
Amazon recently completed the second round of investment in the AI company Anthropic, with a total investment of 4 billion US dollars; At the same time, the company’s own AGI team is actively training its flagship AI model "Olympus", directly targeting Claude of Anthropic. It is reported that Olympus, with hundreds of billions of parameters, is led by senior vice president Rohit Prasad and is expected to surpass Claude in the middle of this year.
OpenAI, let go of the restrictions Users can use ChatGPT without registering.
On Monday (April 1st) local time, the artificial intelligence (AI) company OpenAI announced that it would allow users to use ChatGPT directly without registering the service, which would make it easier for people to experience the potential of artificial intelligence.
Goldman Sachs: AI will have a profound impact on global economic growth.
At present, about two-thirds of jobs in the United States are threatened by AI automation to some extent, and generative AI is likely to replace a quarter of jobs. Globally, generative AI may make 300 million full-time jobs face "automation".
Mexico plans to cut oil exports.
According to sources, Pemex, a Mexican state-owned oil company, canceled the contract to supply its flagship product Maya crude oil to refineries in the United States, Europe and Asia (the scale is unknown). At a time when OPEC and its allies have begun to cut production, this cut may push up the oil price at a five-month high. According to sources, Pemex suspended exports in order to produce more domestic gasoline and diesel before the presidential election on June 2. The above-mentioned person said that the shutdown mainly affected the export of Maya crude oil, while the transportation volume of other grades of crude oil will continue to decrease. In 2021 and 2023, Pemex had to shelve its plan to stop oil exports because it failed to increase domestic fuel production.
[financial calendar]
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