Recently, the trend of gold price has attracted much attention. On April 8th, the international gold price hit a new high again, reaching a maximum of US$ 2,353.81 per ounce, and the domestic AU9999 gold plate also reached a new high, once exceeding 560 yuan/gram, while the retail price of some domestic brands of gold jewelry was close to 720 yuan per gram. With the rapid rise of gold, domestic gold consumption and investment has ushered in a hot market.
It is widely believed in the industry that the continuous increase of gold holdings by major central banks around the world may be the biggest driving force behind this market. At the same time, people in the industry are still optimistic about the trend of gold in the medium and long term, but they have put forward risk attention to the excessive heat of the current short-term market.
The price of gold has risen rapidly, and buying gold bars has to wait for the goods.
Since the beginning of this year, the price of gold has risen rapidly and set a record continuously. In March, the price of new york gold futures rose by 9.8%, the biggest increase in a single month in more than three years. In April, the price of gold hit a record high again and again: on April 3, the COMEX)6 gold futures price in June was reported at $2,315.0/ounce, hitting a record high for five consecutive trading days; On April 5, spot gold broke the $2,330/oz mark after a short decline, and the COMEX gold futures price stood at $2,350/oz.
With the rapid rise of gold price, the consumption and investment boom of gold is accompanied. According to CCTV reports, at present, there have been queues for buying investment gold bars from banks. A number of banks said that the number of gold bars ordered has increased recently, the supply of investment gold bars is tight, banks need to wait or even rush the goods, and the waiting period for customers has also become longer. It is understood that buying gold bars from banks generally requires locking in the price of gold and transferring goods from supply factories or warehouses according to the products purchased by customers.
The product manager of the gold business of Guangfa Bank Beijing Branch said that the sales volume of investment gold bars in the first quarter of this year increased by 206% compared with the fourth quarter of 2023. Compared with last year, customers may receive the spot gold one or two days later this year, and they can basically receive it within 7 working days, compared with 3 to 5 working days before.
The account manager of ICBC said that the gold purchase price on April 8 was 569.2 yuan/gram. Since the end of last year, the sales of investment gold bars have increased by 50%.
The ETF market of gold stocks explodes and the exchange prompts risks.
Wind data shows that as of April 8, the gold stock ETF(517520) had a net inflow of 490 million yuan for 17 consecutive trading days, with the latest scale of 680 million yuan and a turnover of 270 million yuan, both hitting new highs.
Among them, the most striking thing is the China Gold Stock ETF(159562), which rose by 44.3% in the four trading days from March 29th to April 3rd, with a premium of over 30%. To this end, Huaxia Fund has repeatedly issued a premium risk warning, saying that the transaction price of the secondary market of Huaxia Gold ETF is significantly higher than the reference net value of the fund share, and there is a large premium. It also reminds investors to pay attention to the risk of transaction price premium in the secondary market. If they invest blindly, they may suffer heavy losses. In order to protect the interests of investors, the ETF was suspended from the opening of the market on April 8 to 10: 30 that day.
It is worth mentioning that gold-related funds have recently become the target of capital speculation, which has also attracted the attention of Shenzhen Stock Exchange. According to media reports, for the continuous daily limit of China Gold ETF, Shenzhen Stock Exchange has issued an urgent reminder to focus on monitoring the fund and strictly supervise investors who frequently participate in the fund transactions and have abnormal trading behaviors.
In the recent gold rising market, the price of gold stock ETF is extremely rapid. Wind data shows that since February, as of April 8, the cumulative increase of the gold stock index (931238.CSI) has reached 44.31%, while the gold price (Loco London Gold Cash) has only increased by 14.52% in the same period. From the perspective of fund performance, the funds that have recently laid out the gold plate have gained a lot. According to Wind statistics, the ETF of Huaxia CSI Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry rose by 27.27% in the first quarter, ranking first among all equity funds.
In this regard, Liu Tingyu, the fund manager of Yongying Gold ETF, said that the underlying index tracked by the gold ETF is the CSI Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock Index, which mainly invests in listed companies in the gold industry. The stock price of listed companies in the gold industry chain is highly correlated with the price of gold, but the fluctuation elasticity is higher than that of spot gold. The main reason is that the exploration right of gold mining enterprises has profit leverage and domestic gold mining enterprises have the ability to continuously expand production, which makes the index elasticity greater than that of the industry.
Industry warns against short-term price risks.
The increase in holdings of major central banks may be an important driving force behind this gold rise. Wang Lixin, CEO of the World Gold Council in China, said that the increase of gold reserves of major central banks has played a huge support in the physical level of gold.
Since June last year, global central banks have continuously increased their holdings of gold. Since January 2022, 14 countries have increased their holdings of gold by more than 100,000 tons. According to the statistics of the World Gold Council, in January 2024, the global official gold reserve increased by 39 tons, and Turkey and China once again became the two largest official buyers of gold in the world.
Gu Fanding, global commodity theme fund manager of CITIC Prudential, said that the price of gold has increased rapidly recently, and the market speculation is high. If overseas geopolitical risks ease, the international gold price may be adjusted back in the short term. Among them, gold ETF is a fund product. Although its net value is linked to the price of gold, the price of listed ETFs may fluctuate irrationally due to short-term trading sentiment. Recently, individual ETFs have fluctuated greatly because their prices have deviated greatly from their net value and will eventually return to their net value.
It is worth noting that the Chinese gold stock ETF stopped trading for one hour on April 8, and then stopped trading. Similarly, one hour after the suspension of trading on April 9, China Gold ETF resumed trading and fell. On April 9, gold stocks collectively pulled back, Xiaocheng Technology fell more than 7%, and Sichuan Gold, Zhongrun Resources and Hengbang shares fell more than 2%.
Gu Fanding believes that in the medium and long term, factors such as the US government debt problem and the continuous purchase of gold by non-US central banks are still likely to continue or form a relatively favorable environment for gold. In the long run, the global economy shows a general recession trend, and the three major factors, such as the rising demand of global central banks to buy more gold and the global trend of "dollarization", make precious metals expected to have upward momentum.
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