Yesterday (May 23rd), the diving of A-shares caught people off guard. Originally, the Shanghai Composite Index was about to hit 3,200 points, but now it is almost back to 3,100 points.
The main reason is that the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s May meeting on the evening of the 22nd once again poured cold water on the expectation of interest rate cuts.
According to the minutes, "many" Fed officials questioned whether the policy was restrictive enough to reduce the inflation rate to the target level, and many officials mentioned their willingness to further tighten the policy when necessary …
This summary, which indicates that the Fed may not cut interest rates soon, has dealt a clear blow to the market’s expectation of the Fed’s two interest rate cuts during the year, resulting in the general pressure on the US stock market, US debt and commodity market overnight.
According to the analysis of international trade futures, due to the poor inflation data in the first quarter, Fed officials expect to wait and see more time than they expected before they will have more confidence in reducing inflation to the target, suggesting that they are not in a hurry to cut interest rates and high interest rates will remain longer.
Affected by emotions, yesterday’s Hong Kong stock market and A-share market were also collective callbacks.
On the evening of the 22nd, commodity futures such as gold, silver, copper and nickel fell sharply, leading to A shares.The plate was among the top losers.
(Source:APP, statistics as of May 23, 2024, no investment recommendation)
GF Futures believes that the minutes of the Fed meeting released hawkish signals, the US dollar index strengthened, and some funds were superimposed to take profit at a high level, which led to a market correction, and US stocks generally fell, especially silver.
In addition, the real estate sector, which rose under the influence of favorable policies, also showed a correction on the 23 rd, which greatly weakened the driving force behind the market rise, leading to a-share decline.
However, the disk is not without benefits.
On the one hand, Zhou Xiaozhou, Director of the Comprehensive Department of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, was in 2024 on the 23rd.At the series of forum activities, it was indicated that the CSRC will step up efforts to promote the implementation of the "1+N" policy system in the capital market and closely focus on serving the development of new quality productivity.Further improve the basic system of the capital market and give full play to its functions.Do a good job in the "five big articles" of finance, promote the high-level circulation of science and technology, industry and capital, and better serve the overall situation of high-quality development.
On the other hand, Vanke, a real estate stock, ushered in a positive trend, and its share price rose sharply at the end of the session.
(Image source: APP, statistics as of May 23, 2024, no investment recommendation)
According to brokerage China, Vanke hasThe head financial institutions signed an agreement and obtained a syndicated loan of 20 billion yuan. The collateral is Wanwei Logistics Stock under Vanke, and so far it has reached 10 billion yuan.This is the largest single real estate loan since 2020.
In response to the above news, Vanke said that the 20 billion yuan syndicated loan will help the company further improve its liquidity, reflecting the strong support of financial institutions such as the company. In the next step, while properly handling the debts due, the company will actively and comprehensively complete the transformation of financing mode.
Foreign capital continued to flow in,Optimistic about a shares
Although the northbound capital did not announce the real-time transaction in the session, from the turnover announced after the session, on May 22, the net inflow of northbound capital was 4.776 billion yuan, and the net inflow has increased to 21.746 billion yuan since May.
(Image source: APP, statistics as of May 22, 2024, no investment recommendation)
During the year, the net purchase amount of northbound funds reached 95.99 billion yuan, exceeding the annual net purchase amount in 2022 and 2023. (Source: Eastern Fortune Choice data, statistical interval: January 1, 2024 ~ May 22, 2024, investment recommendation is not made)
According to the latest report, overseas hedge funds have increased their holdings of China shares for the fourth consecutive week.
According to the agency brokerage team, hedge funds have bought China stocks in seven of the past eight weeks. However, the report did not disclose the specific purchase amount.
Views on the performance of A-share market outlook,Goldman Sachs said in its latest research that the probability of China stock market entering a technical bull market is 60%, and the average potential maximum rate of return in the next six months is 35%.
Goldman Sachs analysts also stressed that in the next 12 months,The potential upside of the index is 25%, 8% and -13% respectively under the forecast of bull market, benchmark and bear market scenarios.
According to Goldman Sachs, compared with a few years ago, the sensitivity of China’s stock to the bilateral situation between China and the United States has weakened, mainly because the market has a better understanding and pricing of these risks, which explains why China’s stock remains strong after the US government announced the new tariff policy last week.
Recently, the rotation of the A-share market has accelerated, and the fluctuation will be relatively large. No one can predict the short-term ups and downs. We might as well take a long-term view and believe in the cyclical cycle of the stock market and the power of time and compound interest.
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